The Signal and the Noise

Nate Silver chopping it up with the Royal Society for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce (RSA).

Nate explains why most predictions fail. Truth is, the world is a complex place with unknown numbers of variables at play. Folks who approach that environment with a set worldview – they already know what they are going to find – do not do so well at predictions. They avoid critical information that could influence an outcome simply because it differs from their worldview.

“We should be humble about our own ability to perceive the world”
– Nate Silver